文章编号：1672-5328（2008）06-0009-07

沈景炎
（北京城建设计研究总院，北京 100037）

摘要：针对城市轨道交通客流预测存在的问题，介绍了城市轨道交通客流预测的基本观点、年限和范围。从线路客流、车站乘降客流、OD客流、换乘车站客流、车站出入口分向客流等方面，着重分析了城市轨道交通客流预测的内容及其在轨道交通建设项目中的作用。探讨了客流预测结果的可信度，包括线网总量控制、线路量级分析、敏感性分析和设计应用4个方面。最后，总结了轨道交通客流预测在未来应关注的问题。

关键词：交通规划；轨道交通；客流预测；轨道线网；规模控制

中图分类号：U491.1+4

文献标识码：A

Forecasting and Application of Rail Transit Passenger Volumes

Shen Jingyan
(Beijing Urban Engineering Design & Research Institute Co., LTD, Beijing 100037, China)

Abstract：To address issues pertaining to urban rail transit passenger volume forecasting, this paper discusses several related fundamental points of view, including horizon years, and study scopes. The paper focuses on forecasting different types of rail transit passenger volumes, like volumes along routes, boarding and alighting at stops, to and fro OD pairs, transferring between stations, distributing towards exits of terminals, with their functions described for rail transit development projects. The paper also taps into the reliability of forecasting results, yet including the following 4 aspects: grand-total control, route volume grading, sensitivity analysis, and design and application. Finally, the paper provides a summary of problems that deserve attention on forecasting rail transit passenger volumes in the future.

Keywords：transportation planning; rail transit; passenger volume forecasting; rail transit network; scale control