文章编号： 1672-5328（2013）05-0069-07

李瑞敏1，何群2，李帅3
（1.清华大学交通研究所，北京100084；2.河海大学土木与交通学院，江苏南京210098；3.清华大学土木工程系，北京 100084）

摘要： 针对中国机动车保有量发展趋势的分析及预测 问题，从近20 年来中国与其他典型国家、地区和城市的人 均GDP、机动车保有量及人口密度的数据着手，分析三者 之间的关系。结果表明，在未实施机动车保有量控制政 策的情况下，人均机动车保有量与人均GDP有较强的正 相关关系，与人口密度有一定的负相关关系。指出各个 国家在机动化发展过程中各有特点，难以找到精确的定 量化预测方法。针对高保有量、中保有量、低保有量三种 情况分析中国未来机动车发展趋势并提出相关建议。

关键词： 交通政策；机动车保有量；发展趋势；人均GDP

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

Analyses of Automobile Ownership Development Trend in China

Li Ruimin1, He Qun2, Li Shuai3
(1. Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210098, China; 3.Institute of Traffic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

Abstract： Focusing on the problems of analyzing and forecasting the development trend of automobile ownership in China, this paper first summarizes the interrelationship among per capita GDP, automobile ownership, and population density based on the data from China and other typical foreign countries, regions and cities in the past 20 years. The results show that the automobile ownership exhibits a strong positive correlation with GDP per capita, but shows a certain negative correlation with population density without automobile control policies. It is found that that each country has its own characteristics in the process of motorization and it is difficult to develop accurate quantitative prediction methods. Finally, the paper analyzes the future development trend of automobiles in China under the scenarios of high, medium, and low levels of automobile ownership, and proposes relevant recommendations.

Keywords： transportation policy; automobile ownership; development trend; GDP per capita