文章编号： 1672-5328（2015）02-0019-07

郭莉，孙永海，彭坷珂
(深圳市规划国土发展研究中心，广东深圳518040)

摘要： 深圳市在空间规划上长期坚持多中心结构，但在土地资源紧张和机动化交通需求激增的情况 下，其城市空间发展趋势具有一定不确定性。因此，有必要对深圳市空间发展趋势开展多情景假设 下的交通评估。在探讨快速轨道交通对多中心空间结构引导作用的基础上，构建单中心极化发展和 多中心均衡发展两种空间结构情景，以及有无快速轨道交通两种交通方案。从土地利用与交通一体 化、环保低碳、以人为本、关键走廊交通需求四个方面选取交通评估指标，定量化评估四种情景对 应的交通特征。结果表明，城市空间结构对评估指标的影响远大于快速轨道交通的影响，而快速轨 道交通主导的多中心空间结构是深圳市未来发展的理想模式。

关键词： 综合交通体系规划；城市空间结构；多情景假设；多中心；单中心；快速轨道交通；深圳

中图分类号： U491.1+2

文献标识码：A

Evaluating Transportation System Performance under Different Urban Land Development Scenarios in Shenzhen

Guo Li, Sun Yonghai, Peng Keke
(Shenzhen Urban Planning & Land Resource Research Center, Shenzhen Guangdong 518040, China)

Abstract： Although Shenzhen has endorsed the multi-center development policy for the past many years, how the urban area will be shaped in future is uncertain due to the severe shortage of land use and rapid motorized travel demand increase. Thus, this paper evaluates the transportation system performance under various urban spacial development scenarios. By discussing the impact of rapid rail transit on the multicenter development, the paper proposes two urban development alternatives, single city center or multiple city center, and two transportation plans, with and without rapid rail transit service, which results in four scenarios, respectively. The transportation performance of each scenario is evaluated by four quantitative indicators, land use and integrated transportation, environmental protection and low-carbon, people-oriented service, travel demand within key corridors. The results show that the effect of urban spatial pattern is much bigger than that of rapid rail transit service. Rapid rail transit-oriented multi-center development is the most ideal growth pattern for Shenzhen in the future.

Keywords： comprehensive transportation system planning; urban spatial development; scenarios; multicenter city; single city center; rapid rail transit; Shenzhen