文章编号： 1672-5328（2015）02-0078-17

Moshe Givoni1, 2，Frédéric Dobruszkes2 著，张斯阳3 译
(1.特拉维夫大学地理及人类环境学院，以色列特拉维夫69978；2.牛津大学地质环境学院交通研究小组，英国 牛津OX1 3QY；3.中国城市规划设计研究院，北京100037)

摘要： 自高速铁路(High-speed Rail，HSR，以下简称“高铁”)开始运营以来，尽管已历经近50 年 的发展并且在全球范围内拥有17 166 km里程，但是对于高铁需求量的本质仍然所知甚少。诸多信 息表明，全球高铁建设项目在期望可达性、经济及环境效益以及对高铁预测需求量相对匮乏的跟踪 记录方面存在明显的空白。针对出行方式替代与诱发交通需求的影响，本文旨在填补高铁开通后需 求方面的空白，从而助力未来的高铁系统规划研究过程。目前在高铁需求方面没有足够的实证，并 且现有实证严重受到线路具体特征影响，尽管存在方法的局限，但是呈现出的实证可促使高铁成为 一种性能更优的交通工具。研究表明，在高铁运营后的最初几年，只有10%~20%的需求量是诱发 交通需求，其余均来自于出行方式替代。在多数情况下，大部分高铁乘客之前使用传统铁路出行， 从航空、小汽车以及长途客车转移至高铁的乘客量比例较低。

关键词： 高铁；出行方式替代；诱发交通需求；实证

中图分类号： U491.1+2

文献标识码：A

A Review of Ex-Post Evidence for Mode Substitution and Induced Demand Following the Introduction of High-Speed Rail

Written by Moshe Givoni1, 2, Frédéric Dobruszkes2, Translated by Zhang Siyang3
(1.Department of Geography and the Human Environment, Tel-Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel; 2. Transport Studies Unit, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK; 3.China Academy of Urban Planning & Design, Beijing 100037, China)

Abstract： To date, relatively little is known about the nature of the demand for high-speed rail (HSR) soon after inauguration of the services, despite close to 50-year experience of HSR operation and 17 166 km of HSR network around the world. This is a real lacuna given the scale of HSR construction around the world, the amount of resources committed to it, the desired accessibility, economic and environmental effects associated with HSR development and the relatively poor track record of forecasting demand for HSR services. Focusing on mode substitution and induced demand effects, this review aims to fill the gap in knowledge about the ex-post demand for HSR services in order to facilitate a learning process for the planning of the future HSR network. Although there is not much evidence on the demand for HSR services and existing evidence is largely influenced by route- specific characteristics, a methodological limitation that must be acknowledged, the evidence presented allows a better characterisation of HSR as a mode of transport. The review shows that the demand for HSR a few years after inauguration is about 10–20% induced demand and the rest is attributed to mode substitution. In terms of mode substitution, in most cases the majority of HSR passengers have used the conventional rail before. Substitution from aircraft, car and coach is generally more modest.

Keywords： high-speed rail; mode substitution; induced demand; ex-post evidence