文章编号： 1672-5328（2016）03-0029-06

张永生1，姚恩建1，蔡昌俊2，杨志强2
(1.北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京100044；2.广州地铁集团有限公司，广东广州510310)

摘要： 城市轨道交通网络新线接入后，网络拓扑结构和客流时空规律都将发生较大变化。提出通过 可达性指标将进出站量预测、OD分布量预测、基于路径选择模型的随机客流分配等阶段关联，构 建客流预测模型。进出站量预测时，构建土地利用替代指标，避免对新车站周边土地利用、社会经 济属性等进行调查；同时由目的地选择效用计算得到车站可达性指标，描述车站位置对进出站量的 影响。OD分布量预测时，构建目的地选择模型，可适应拓扑变化后的场景，模型中OD可达性指 标由路径选择效用计算得到。构建的路径选择模型，综合考虑了影响乘客路径选择的各因素。最 后，对广州市地铁6 号线接入后的客流进行建模预测，各模型参数均符合统计检验要求且客流预测 精度较高。

关键词： 交通规划；城市轨道交通；客流预测模型；新线接入

中图分类号： U491.1+4

文献标识码：A

Forecasting Passenger Volume with the New Rail Transit Lines in Operation

Zhang Yongsheng1, Yao Enjian1, Cai Changjun2, Yang Zhiqiang2
(1.School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; 2. Guangzhou Metro Group Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Guangdong 510310, China)

Abstract： The urban rail transit network topology and the spatial/temporal characteristics of passenger flow change significantly with the new rail transit lines in operation. This paper develops a passenger volume forecasting model using accessibility index in connecting entrance/egress passenger forecasting, OD distribution, and assignment based on route choice model. To forecast passenger entrance/egress volumes, the paper replaces land use with an alternative index to circumvent the investigation on land use and sociodemographics surrounding new stations. The station accessibility index is used based on destination choice utility to show the impacts of station location on entrance/egress passenger volumes. To forecast OD distribution, the study develops destination choice model that is tailored to different network topology. The OD accessibility index is calculated using route choice utility. The route choice model is developed with the consideration of various factors in passengers' route choice. Finally, the paper illustrates the passenger volume forecasting for the Guangzhou rail transit network with the new Metro Line 6. The results show that the estimated model parameters meet the statistical requirements and the forecasting results are highly accurate.

Keywords： transportation planning; urban rail transit; passenger volume forecasting model; new lines in operation