文章编号： 1672-5328（2017）01-0001-04

全波
(中国城市规划设计研究院，北京100037)

摘要： 在既有规划编制导则中，已经明确交通模型和交通需求分析是综合交通体系规划、轨道交通 线网规划的重要工作内容。交通模型的价值并非仅仅体现在预测结果和精度上，更在于编制过程中 对交通特征和供需关系的分析，对战略方案、系统方案的指导、解释、论证的作用上。但在现实规 划编制中，模型的地位和价值在丧失，日益成为项目成果中的摆设品，难以支撑交通需求深入分 析，并与战略构思、方案制定相脱节。与此同时，规划实践、大数据、交通模型的发展趋势，亟须 重新审视模型的价值，提升模型精细化的定量分析水平。最后，从机制保障、应用推广、功能拓 展、科研攻关等方面，提出促进模型价值提升的相关建议。

关键词： 交通规划；交通模型；交通需求分析；综合交通体系规划；轨道交通线网规划；大数据

中图分类号： U491.1+2

文献标识码：A

The Value of Transportation Models

Quan Bo
(China Academy of Urban Planning & Design, Beijing 100037, China)

Abstract： The importance of transportation models and travel demand analysis in comprehensive transportation system and rail transit network planning has been clearly stated by the existing planning guidelines. The value of transportation model reflects not only the forecasting results and accuracy, but also the analysis of travel characteristics and relationship between supply and demand, which can effectively guide, explain and demonstrate the strategic and system plans. However, the role and functionalities of transportation models are being undermined; the models have been increasingly used as the showing-off tools in the planning preparation stage. Such misusage of the models cannot meet the comprehensive travel demand analysis needs, thus provides no values to the strategic planning and program formulation. The current development trends in transportation planning, big data and transportation models urgently call for reexamining the use of the models and correctly utilizing the models for the accurate quantitative analysis. Finally, this paper provides suggestions on promoting the value of transportation models in several aspects: system regulation, application promotion, functionality expansion, key technology, and etc.

Keywords： transportation planning; transportation models; travel demand analysis; comprehensive transportation system planning; rail transit network planning; big data