文章编号： 1672-5328（2018）03-0087-06

刘侃1, 2，张蕊1, 3，杨静1, 2，李春艳4
(1.北京建筑大学土木与交通工程学院，北京100044；2.北京建筑大学北京市城市交通基础设施建设工程技术研 究中心，北京100044；3.北京建筑大学首都世界城市顺畅交通协同创新中心，北京100044；4.北京交通发展研 究院，北京100073)

摘要： 数量庞大的流动人口在北京市交通出行者中扮演重要角色。其中，短期旅居流动人口(在京 时间小于1 个月)由于居住时间短、活动集中、目的性强等特点，出行行为更加复杂和不确定，其出 行规律及出行方式选择的研究对于解析和把握城市整体交通特征具有重要意义。通过分析北京市 2014 年第五次综合交通调查中的流动人口调查数据，以在京时间一个月以内、居住在各星级酒店和 小旅馆等地的短期旅居流动人口为研究对象，研究其出行特征与出行方式选择的内在联系，并通过 多项Logistic 模型构建相应的出行方式选择模型。结论显示居住地类别、公交IC 卡持有情况、出行 距离、出行费用、出行时耗等因素对流动人口的出行决策影响显著；引导流动人口向绿色出行方式 转移需要在流动人口的重要集散地合理配置公交设施、提供公交IC 卡便捷的购卡和退卡服务、提 高公共自行车使用的便利性。

关键词： 交通规划；短期旅居流动人口；出行特征；出行方式；多项Logistic模型；北京市

中图分类号： U491.1+2

文献标识码：A

Travel Characteristics and Mode Choice Model of Floating Population: Take Short-Term Floating Population in Beijing as an Example

Liu Kan1, 2，Zhang Rui1, 3，Yang Jing1, 2，Li Chunyan4
(1.School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China; 2.Beijing Urban Transportation Infrastructure Engineering and Architecture, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China; 3.Beijing Collaborative Innovation Center for Metropolitan Transportation, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China; 4.Beijing Transport Institute, Beijing 100073, China)

Abstract： A large amount of floating population have significantly impacted Beijing transportation system. Specifically, those short- term floating population (i.e., less than one month stay) are given a number of unique travel characteristics, such as a short- time living, concentrated activities, and goal- oriented trips, which raise complexities and uncertainties to local transportation system. Thus, study on the travel pattern and mode choices of those travelers would benefit in grasping the features of local transportation system. Based on the survey data of floating population in the fifth Beijing comprehensive traffic survey of 2014, this paper analyzes the characteristics of short- term travelers who stayed in Beijing hotels less than one month, and explores the internal connection between travel pattern and the travelers' mode choice. To this purpose, the paper adopts a multi- logistic model to develop the travel mode choice model for the shortterm floating population in Beijing. The results show that factors, saying that living condition, usage of bus IC cards, travel distance, cost and time have significant impact on travel mode choice. In addition, increasing the number of green travel mode users of floating population should focus on improving public facilities and enhancing the convenience of using bus cards and bike sharing system.

Keywords： transportation planning; short- term floating population; transportation characteristics; travel modes; multinomial logistic model; Beijing