文章编号：1672-5328（2012）03-0068-06

刘　爽^{1, 2}，何天健²，刘智丽¹，陈绍宽¹
（1. 北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室，北京100044；2. 香港理工大学电机工程系，香港999077）

摘要：面对中国大城市不断加快的机动化进程及其产生的一系列问题，探讨了城市机动化的发展趋势及影响因素。首先提出城市交通机动化进程的两个标志，并进一步总结城市交通结构的演变特征。然后分析了城市经济发展水平、人口密度、道路设施和公共交通发展对机动化发展的影响，据此判断城市机动车保有量仍将保持高速增长态势。最后指出，小汽车交通模式一旦在大城市形成，短期内难以改变，大城市应根据自身特点发展公共交通并采取相应的交通管理措施引导小汽车合理使用，不断优化交通结构。

关键词：交通政策；城市交通；交通结构；机动化趋势

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

Urban Motorization Development

Liu Shuang^{1, 2}, Ho Tinkin², Liu Zhili¹, Chen Shaokuan¹
(1. MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; 2. Department of Electrical Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China)

Abstract：Aiming at problems caused by rapid motorization development at large cities in China, this paper discusses the trends and influencing factors of urban motorization. Firstly, the paper describes two development marks of the urban motorization process and the characteristics of the urban transportation system. Then, by analyzing the impact of urban economic development stage, population density, road infrastructure and public transportation development on the motorization development, the paper predicts that the urban motor vehicle ownership will continuously increase. Finally, the paper points out that it is hard to change the urban transportation structure once private vehicles become dominate travel mode in the near future. To optimize urban transportation structure constantly, big cities must develop public transportation tailored to each city’s characteristics and develop traffic management strategies to control the usage of cars.

Keywords：transportation policy; urban transportation; traffic structure; motorization trend