文章编号： 1672-5328(2019)02-0102-12

覃鹏1，赵祖菊2
(1.深圳市城市交通规划设计研究中心有限公司，广东深圳518021；2.贵州财经大学工商管理学院，贵州贵阳 550022)

摘要： 交通冲突是导致交叉口交通事故的关键因素，是评价交叉口安全水平的重要研究内容。在交 通冲突技术的基础上，创新性地引入动量守恒和能量守恒理论建立交叉口安全评价模型。首先，基 于合理假设利用所引入理论建立冲突危险性、冲突严重性和权重系数对应的元素、向量和矩阵的求 解模型，并对模型进行深入解释，分析表明模型能够合理解释实际现象。其次，根据车道数和车头 时距建立修正冲突数的元素、向量和矩阵的求解模型。最后，提出不同安全水平评价层级，并基于 元素、向量以及矩阵建立了表征各层级冲突安全水平指标的求解模型，同时提出将危险度和严重度 分别作为控制性指标与参考性指标。

关键词： 交通安全；交通冲突技术；评价模型；危险度；严重度

中图分类号： U491.2+65

文献标识码：A

Intersection Safety Evaluation Model Based on Dynamic Energy Conversion Principle

Qin Peng1, Zhao Zuju2
(1.Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Guangdong 518021, China; 2.College of Business and Administration, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang Guizhou 550022, China)

Abstract： Being one of key intersection crash contributing factors, traffic conflict is important component in intersection level of safety evaluation. Based on traffic conflict analysis techniques, this paper innovatively introduces an intersection safety evaluation model developed by dynamic energy conversion principle. The model structured by vector and matrix is first developed by the reasonable assumptions and the analysis of the risk and severity of traffic conflict as well as their corresponding weighted impact factor to different elements. The model's capability to explain the real world situations is verified. The paper explains how to define number of conflicts based on number of lanes and gap between vehicles, and how to get the solution to the matrix model. Finally, the paper proposes level of safety evaluation framework and the modeling details on how to use the risk and severity of conflict as control and referencing indexes in assessing various intersection safety based on dynamic energy conversion theory.

Keywords： traffic safety; Traffic Conflict Technique (TCT); evaluation model; risk degree; severity degree