文章编号：1672-5328（2011）06-0050-06

卞长志¹，关敬辉²，陆化普³
（1.中国城市规划设计研究院，北京 100037；2.东莞市地理信息与规划编制研究中心，广东 东莞523129；3.清华大学交通研究所，北京 100084）

摘要：为了更好地指导交通规划实践、提高规划方案应对风险的能力，在分析交通需求预测不确定性的基础上引入鲁棒设计概念，阐述了交通需求预测与鲁棒规划方案的关系。采用随机需求假定，以随机规划理论和均值–方差模型为基础，建立OD需求不确定的鲁棒交通网络设计模型；以蒙特卡洛模拟和遗传算法为工具，设计求解随机双层组合优化问题的实用算法。最后，以Nguyen-Dupuis网络为例进行实际计算。结果表明，交通网络设计方案由需求不确定程度和决策者风险偏好联合决定，且基于不确定需求的网络规划方案具有更好的鲁棒性能，可有效降低规划风险。

关键词：交通规划；需求不确定性；鲁棒交通网络设计；双层规划；遗传算法

中图分类号：U491.1⁺2

文献标识码：A

Robust Transportation Network Design under Demand Uncertainty

BIAN Chang-zhi¹, GUAN Jing-hui², LU Hua-pu³
(1. China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, Beijing 100037, China; 2. Dongguan Research Center of GIS & Urban Planning, Dongguan Guangdong 523129, China; 3. Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

Abstract：To better guide transport planning practice and improve the planning reliability against risks, this paper analyzes the uncertainty existed in traffic demand forecast, and then describes the relationship between demand forecasting and reliable transportation planning based on the robust design concept. The OD trip matrices are taken as random variables with a known probability distribution, and a robust network design model under stochastic demand is developed using stochastic programming theory and means-variance model. Based on Monte Carlo simulation and Genetic Algorithm, an algorithm is proposed to solve the stochastic bi-level combinatorial optimization problem. Finally, Numerical results from Nguyen Dupuis network show that the planning network is determined by demand uncertainty and decision-makers’ preferences. Transportation network planning network is more reliable and less risky if demand uncertainty is considered in the modeling.

Keywords：transportation planning; demand uncertainty; robust transportation network design; bi-level programming; genetic algorithm