文章编号：1672-5328（2011）05-0080-06

陈燕萍¹，宋　彦^{1, 2}，张　毅³，彭　科²，张　芩¹，金　鑫¹
（1.深圳大学建筑与城市规划学院，广东 深圳 518060；2.美国北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校城市与区域规划系，教堂山 27514；3.同济大学交通运输工程学院，上海 200092）

摘要：为缓解日益严重的城市交通问题、优化居民出行方式，有必要研究城市土地利用与交通系统的协调问题。以深圳市为例，应用多元Logit模型(MNL模型)，纳入城市土地利用变量与出行者的家庭、社会、经济等变量，分析其对居民工作与非工作出行方式的影响。研究结果表明，出行起点的城市区位是影响居民出行方式的重要因素之一。相对于组团中心和非中心区的出行者，城市中心和城市副中心的出行者选择公共交通的可能性更高。同时，还从城市规划和设计角度，对优化居民出行方式提出了政策性建议。

关键词：交通规划；土地利用；出行方式选择；MNL模型；深圳

中图分类号：U491.1⁺2

文献标识码：A

Impact of Land Use Development on Travel Mode Choice: A Case Study in Shenzhen

CHEN Yan-ping¹, SONG Yan^{1, 2}, ZHANG Yi³, PENG Ke², ZHANG Qin¹, JIN Xin¹
(1. College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen Guangdong 518060, China; 2. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill 27514, USA; 3. School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China)

Abstract：To alleviate increasingly worsening urban transportation problems and promote optimal travel mode, it is necessary to study the relationship between urban land use and transportation system. Taking Shenzhen City as an example, this paper develops a multinomial logit (MNL) model using land use and travelers’ household, social and economic attributes as variables, and analyzes the impact of these variables on commuting and non-commuting travel mode choice. The analysis results indicate that the location of origin is an important factor in choosing travel mode. Comparing travelers from centers of communities and from suburbs, it is clear that trip-makers in urban centers and sub-centers are more likely to travel by public transportation. Finally, the paper provides suggestions on how to promote optimal travel modes through urban planning and design.

Keywords：transportation planning; land use; travel mode choice; multinomial logit model; Shenzhen