文章编号：1672-5328（2010）05-0057-08

李媛，张秀媛
（北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京100044）

摘要：针对北京市地铁5 号线天 通苑北站P+R停车场规模与实际 停车换乘需求不匹配的问题，研究 确定其停车换乘需求的预测方法， 并提出解决停车设施供给不足的 方案。在分析天通苑地区P+R停 车场时间、车辆来源及设施供给情 况的基础上，建立Logit 随机均衡 交通方式选择模型，得到该地区高 峰小时停车换乘需求量为1 476 个 泊位。同时，将预测结果与天通苑 北站P+R停车场实际可扩展停车 规模进行比较，提出在瓶颈路段设 置新的P+R停车场的方案，并建立 了系统优化平衡模型，对该地区的 停车换乘需求进行分配。结果表 明，新建P+R 停车场规模分别为 300，400，500 和600 个泊位的条件 下，停车换乘需求基本按照两个停 车场的规模比例分配停车数量。

关键词：交通规划；静态交通；停车 换乘需求；Logit 模型；停车换乘 需求分配

中图分类号：U491.1+2

文献标识码：A

Park & Ride Demand Forecasting at Tiantongyuan Area along Beijing Subway Line Five

LI Yuan, ZHANG Xiu-yuan
(School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China)

Abstract：Concerning the unbalanced demand and supply of Park & Ride facilities at Tiantongyuan North Station along Line Five of Beijing Subway, this paper investigates how to estimate the demand for Park & Ride facilities at the station and how to solve the problem of insufficient parking space. By analyzing the parking time, the origin of Park & Ride vehicles and facilities supply at Tiantongyuan area, the paper applies a Logit model to estimate a peak hour demand of 1476 vehicles for Park & Ride facilities within the area that excesses the planned capacity of Park & Ride facilities. To solve the problem, the paper proposes to construct another new Park & Ride lot at Lishuiqiao station where traffic bottlenecks frequently occur. A systematic equilibrium model is also developed by the study to assign the Park & Ride demand at Tiantongyuan area. The results show that the Park & Ride demand is assigned basically according to the scale of the two parking lots. Therefore, the paper suggests to increase parking capacity in the vicinity of Tiantongyuan North Station while reducing the parking spaces at the newly-built parking lots so as to minimize the vehicles entering congested segment and to relief road congestion.

Keywords：transportation planning; static transportation; Park & Ride demand; Logit model; Park & Ride demand assignment