文章编号： 1672-5328（2021）04-0001-09

全永燊1，潘昭宇2 ，马毅林1
(1. 北京交通发展研究院，北京100073；2.中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心，北京100045)

摘要： 中国正处于经济社会转型变革的关键时期，城市交通系统赖以生存和发展的外部生态环境发 生重大变化。基于城市交通系统进化的内、外部两大动力分析，结合城市交通具体案例，阐述城市 交通系统具有开放性、复杂性和非线性等系统属性，以及远离平衡态、内在交互制衡、自组织性能 等特征。提出新时期城市交通的战略导向应从追求供需平衡转变为适应城市功能大系统的持续进 化，同时应调整城市交通系统目标导向和规划思维方法。最后就城市交通系统承载力、智能化等重 大问题进行剖析并提出建议。

关键词： 城市交通；系统进化；战略思维；交通规划

中图分类号： U491.1+2

文献标识码：A

Evolution of Urban Transportation System and Change Thinking

Quan Yongshen1, Pan Zhaoyu2, Ma Yilin1
(1. Beijing Transport Institute, Beijing 100073, China; 2. China Center for Urban Development, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100045, China)

Abstract： China is in a critical period of economic and social transformation, and the external ecological environment on which the urban transportation system depends for development has undergone significant changes. Based on the analysis of the internal and external dynamics of urban transportation system evolution, combined with specific cases of urban transportation, this paper summarizes that urban transportation system has the characteristics of openness, complexity and nonlinearity, as well as far away from equilibrium, internal interaction and balance, and self-organization and so on. The paper proposes that the strategic orientation of urban transportation in the new era should change from pursuing the balance of supply and demand to adapting to the continuous evolution of urban functional system, and adjusting the goal-oriented and planning-thinking method of urban transportation system. Finally, this paper provides suggestions on the major issues such as the capacity and intellectualization of urban transportation system.

Keywords： urban transportation; system evolution; strategic thinking; transportation planning