文章编号： 1672-5328（2021）05-0059-07

陈素平1，赵莎莎1，姜洋1，蒋寅2，左文泽2
(1. 宇恒可持续交通研究中心，北京100004；2. 天津市政工程设计研究总院有限公司，天津300051)

摘要： 及时评估交通领域节能减排政策的实施效果，可为后续减排政策的制定提供指引和参考。以 天津市为例，对道路交通领域已实施的碳减排政策的实际减排效果进行测算与评估。首先根据减排 原理将政策分为控制总量类、优化交通结构类和改变能源方式类，基于行驶里程法建立三类政策的 减排模型。通过比较政策实施前后产生的变化，测算减排政策实现的CO2减排量。结果表明，小客 车总量调控政策对碳减排贡献最为突出，其次为天津港运输结构优化、新能源公共汽车推广等政 策。最后，分析了政策的减排潜力并为天津市减排政策的制定提出建议。

关键词： 道路交通治理；碳排放；行驶里程法；减排政策；实施效果；天津市

中图分类号： U491

文献标识码：A

Implementation Effects of Road Traffic Carbon Reduction Policies in Tianjin

Chen Suping1, Zhao Shasha1, Jiang Yang1, Jiang Yin2, ZuoWenze2
(1. China Sustainable Transportation Center, Beijing 100004, China; 2. Tianjin Municipal Engineering Design and Research Institute, Tianjin 300051, China)

Abstract： Timely evaluation of the implementation effects of energy conservation and emissions reduction policies in the transportation sector can provide guidance and reference for the formulation of subsequent policy making. Taking Tianjin as an example, this paper calculates and evaluates the actual effects of carbon reduction policies in the field of road traffic. According to the principle of emissions reduction, policies are divided into total amount control, traffic structure optimization and energy mode. The emissions reduction models for three types of policies are established based on the mileage method. By comparing the changes before and after the policy implementation, the CO2 emissions reduction achieved by the emissions reduction policies is calculated. The results show that the minibus total amount control policy has the most prominent contribution to carbon emissions reduction, followed by the policies such as the optimization of Tianjin Port transportation structure, and the promotion of new energy bus and other policies. Finally, the paper analyzes the emissions reduction potential of policies and provides suggestions for the emissions reduction policies in Tianjin.

Keywords： road traffic management; carbon emissions; driving mileage law; emissions reduction policy; implementation effects; Tianjin