文章编号： 1672-5328（2023）06-0038-07

涂强1，刘思杨2
(1. 北京市城市规划设计研究院，北京100045；2.长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院，湖南长沙410114)

摘要： 对规划与政策可控变量组合情景下的转移行为特征实证分析在现有出行方式转移研究中较 为少见。以北京市为例，对3 351 名出行者进行出行方式转移意向调查(SP 调查)，识别出4 类转移意 愿群体。首先分析出行时间比和停车费用两个变量对不同群体的影响。然后，对比不同组合情景下 出行方式转移率的变化，以反映公共交通出行效率改善和小汽车使用成本提高对不同群体出行方式 转移意愿的影响程度。结果表明：降低出行时间比对于提高公共交通乘客依赖度和减少乘客流失效 果较好，但是很难吸引对小汽车高度依赖的出行者；提高停车费用对于引导摇摆群体从小汽车出行 向公共交通转移效果显著。两个变量所产生的出行方式转移率受到现状基准值的影响，在制定政策 时需统筹考虑两者的互动关系。最后，提出应结合出行调查数据制定分区域、分群体、分目的的公 共交通吸引力提升策略，探索精细化、可实施、重统筹的公共交通发展及交通治理路径。

关键词： 公共交通；小汽车；SP调查；出行方式转移；出行时间比；停车费用；北京市

中图分类号： U491.1+2

文献标识码：A

Behavior Characteristics Analysis of Travel Mode Shift: A Case Study of Beijing

TU Qiang1, LIU Siyang2
(1. Beijing Municipal Institute of City Planning & Design, Beijing 100045, China; 2. School of Traffic & Transportation Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha Hunan 410114, China)

Abstract： Empirical analyses of behavior characteristics under the combined controllable variables scenarios of planning and policy are relatively rare in existing studies on travel mode shift. Taking Bei-jing as an example, a Stated Preference (SP) survey was conducted on 3,351 travelers, identify-ing four groups with different travel mode shift intentions. This paper starts with an assessment of the impact of two variables— travel time ratio and parking fees—on different groups. Subse- quently, the changes in travel mode shift rates under different combination scenarios are com-pared to reflect the impact of improving public transit efficiency and increasing the cost of pas-senger car use on the intention to shift travel modes for different groups. The results show that reducing the travel time ratio is effective in increasing passenger dependence on public transit and reducing passenger loss, but it is still difficult to attract travelers highly dependent on private cars. Increasing parking fees significantly guide the swing group to shift modes from private cars to public transit. The travel mode shift rates resulting from both variables are influenced by the existing baseline values and their interactive relationship needs to be considered in a holistic way when formulating policies. Finally, the paper recommends developing region- , group- , and pur- pose- specific strategies to enhance the attractiveness of public transit based on travel survey data. This approach aims to explore refined, implementable, and comprehensive paths for public transit development and transportation management.

Keywords： public transit; passenger cars; Stated-Preference (SP) surveys; travel mode shift; travel time ratio; parking costs; Beijing