文章编号：1672-5328（2008）02-0077-06

焦国安¹ 金霞² 杨菲³ 邹熙⁴
（1. 美国纽约都市运输委员会，纽约 10038；2. 美国Cambridge Systematics 咨询公司，纽约 10016；3. 美国Louis Berger咨询公司，纽约 10038；4. 美国STV咨询公司，纽约 10003）

摘要：交通需求模型预测未来一个区域内对交通系统的需求。这些模型是辅助交通官员与专家对重大交通项目投资和政策策略作出理性决定的重要工具。根据本刊2008年第1期对中国具有代表性的几个城市交通模型系统的示例介绍，对中国目前的交通模型研发、数据及应用进行总结，并比较了中美交通模型的差异。通过对现阶段中国交通模型建设和使用的深入了解，并结合已有研究和实际工作经验，对中美交通模型及其相关的工作进行系统性和前瞻性的讨论。

关键词：交通规划；交通需求模型；交通需求预测程序；数据；模型结构

中图分类号：U491.1⁺2

文献标识码：A

Travel Demand Forecasting in China and the U.S.

Chiao Kuo-Ann¹, Jin Xia², Yang Fei³ and Zou Xi⁴
(1.New York Metropolitan Transportation Council, New York 10038, USA; 2.Cambridge Systematics, Inc., New York 10016, USA; 3.The Louis Berger Group, Inc., New York 10038, USA; 4.STV Group Inc., New York 10003, USA)

Abstract: Travel demand models predict travel patterns for the future and define the region's needs for the transportation system. These models are used to facilitate informed decision-making on major transportation system investments and policies. This paper examines the current practices in travel demand forecasting in China based on a summary of the urban transportation models from several major cities, and compares them with the practices in the United States. By providing a picture of the current status in travel demand modeling in China, this study also explores potential improvements that may lead to better practices.

Keywords: transportation planning; travel demand model; travel demand forecasting procedure; data; model structure