文章编号：1672-5328（2007）05-0006-07

仇保兴
（中华人民共和国建设部，北京 100835）

摘要：中国正处于城市化和机动化双重发展的高潮期，人口持续向大城市聚集，城市机动车数量增长迅猛，土地资源日趋紧张，公共交通的主导地位不强。在这些条件的约束下，选择正确的城市交通发展模式既是支撑城市可持续发展的必要条件，又是应对全球气候变化做出的正确决策。在此基础上，提出了一系列发展可持续城市交通的政策措施，如确立优先发展城市公共交通战略；构筑以公共交通为主导的城市综合交通体系；推进城市公共交通的行业改革；加强城市交通基础设施建设；加快实施交通需求管理等。最后，就轨道交通、智能交通系统、常规公交和快速公交系统、步行和自行车交通等方面，对未来10年中国城市交通的发展进行了展望，意在指出，可持续的城市交通发展模式决定了城市的未来，社会各界要共同推动绿色交通的发展。

关键词：公共交通；综合交通体系；交通需求管理

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

Outlook of Urban Transportation Development in China

QIU Baoxing
(Ministry of Construction P.R.China, Beijing 100835)

Abstract: China is now in a developing process of urbanization and motorization, with a continuous agglomeration of population in metropolitan areas, a sharp increase of urban automobiles, an increasing growth of demand on land resources, and a slow development of transportation systems. Under the above constraints, the selection of a proper pattern for urban transportation development is not only necessary for supporting sustainable urban development, but also important for a correct decision in dealing with global climate change. Given the above situation, this paper proposes a series of policies and measures for sustainable urban transportation development such as establishing strategies of giving priority to urban public transportation development, building a transit-oriented comprehensive urban transportation system, promoting industrial reform of urban public transportation, enhancing the construction of urban transportation infrastructure facilities, and accelerating the implementation of Travel Demand Management (TDM) measures. The paper concludes with an outlook of China's urban transportation development regarding rail transit, ITS, bus, BRT, pedestrian and bicycling in the next 10 years, and points out that the sustainable urban development pattern determines the future of a city, and that the entire society should make a concerted effort to push forward the development of green transportation.

Keywords: public transportation; comprehensive transportation system; Travel Demand Management (TDM)