文章编号：1672-5328（2007）03-0014-06

沈丽萍¹ 马莹² 高世廉²
（1.西南交通大学峨眉校区交通运输系，峨眉山 614200；2.西南交通大学交通运输学院，成都610031）

摘要：在城市轨道交通的规划设计中，客流资料是项目的必要性论证、方案比选、确定系统规模、进行效益分析的基础。通过对我国十几座城市轨道交通系统30多条线路客流预测资料的分析，结合规划设计的技术决策过程和处理实际问题时的思路，建立了客流分析方法，提出不能仅靠“远期高峰小时单向最大断面客流量”来确定系统规模，应考察单向“最大断面客流量”是否能得到“高断面流量区间”的支撑；阐明了客运量可能的发展趋势；建立了以车站、路段为单元的客流空间分布研究方法和全日客运量时段分布研究方法；提出了应对系统、环境发生变化时的客流预测结果的调整方法。

关键词：城市轨道交通；客流预测；客流分析

中图分类号：U491.1⁺4

文献标识码：A

Passenger Flow Analysis of Urban Rail Transit Systems

SHEN Liping¹, MA Ying², and GAO Shilian²
(1.Department of Transportation, Emei Campus of Southwest Jiaotong University, E'meishan 614200, China; 2. Collage of Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031,China)

Abstract: Passenger flow information is a prerequisite for feasibility study, scenarios comparison, system sizing, and benefit analysis for urban rail transit planning and design. Based on passenger flow forecasts for more than 30 urban rail transit projects in about 10 cities in China, and considering the decision-making process and problem-solving strategies in the planning and design of these projects, this paper develops a method for passenger flow analysis, which determines the system size according to whether the max point passenger volume is consistent with the high passenger volume segment, instead of only by future peak hour directional max point volume. The paper clarifies the possible trends for passenger flow changes, and addresses issues related to passenger flow distribution by stops/segments, and daily passenger flow distribution by time intervals, as well as passenger flow forecasts adjustment according to system and environment changes.

Keywords: urban rail transit; forecast of passenger flow; analysis of passenger flow