文章编号：1672-5328（2007）02-0051-04

杨龙海¹ 章锡俏¹ 李社教² 罗照鸿²
（1.哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院，哈尔滨150090； 2.深圳市政工程设计院，深圳 518035）

摘要：深圳盐田港保税物流园区作为海关实施监管的特殊经济区域，其交通规划与交通组织具有十分独特的特点。对传统的四阶段预测方法进行适当的调整，根据盐田港保税区仓储处理能力进行交通生成预测，根据保税区货物装卸流程和各交通小区的仓储能力进行交通分布预测；然后结合盐田港保税区出入口单一、交通量繁重的特点，在北片区闸口部分路段实施单向交通组织；最后运用软件TransCAD采用增量分配法进行了交通分配，得到的分析数据说明了方案的可实施性。

关键词：保税区；交通需求；交通组织；交通分配

中图分类号：U491.1⁺4

文献标识码：A

The Freight Traffic Demand Forecasting of Shenzhen Yantian Harbor Free Trade Zone

YANG Longhai¹, ZHANG Xiqiao¹, LI Shejiao², and LUO Zhaohong²
(1.School of Science and Engineering on Communications, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China; 2. Shenzhen Municipal Engineering Design Institute, Shenzhen 518035, China)

Abstract: As a special economic zone for intendance by customhouse, Yantian Harbor Free Trade Logistics Park in Shenzhen has particular characteristics in traffic planning and organization. Traditional four-stage forecasting method is revised in this paper: trip generation forecasting is based on storage disposal capability of the zone; traffic distribution forecasting is based on load and unload flow of freight in the zone and storage capacity of each traffic zone; one-way traffic organization is applied in on-ramp of Beipian area for the characteristics of single pair of passageways with heavy traffic flow in the zone; traffic assignment is performed by Incremental Assignment method with TransCAD software. The resulting data illuminates the practicality of the method proposed by this paper.

Keywords: free trade zone; traffic demand; traffic organization; traffic assignment