文章编号：1672-5328（2007）02-0060-06

原永静¹ 王元庆²
（1. 宇恒可持续交通研究中心，北京 100022；2.长安大学，西安 710064）

摘要：从居民出行产生的根源——用地入手，分析我国经济快速发展时期城市用地的新特征，引入出行源点的概念并分析其产生机理。在此基础上提出既经济又适用的基于用地功能产生率法的改进方法——基于出行源点土地利用的居民出行生成预测体系，并对体系中的模型进行了检验和修正。最后，应用该方法预测北京南中轴快速公交项目客流密度，既节省人力物力，又可得出可靠结果。

关键词：交通工程；出行生成；用地；出行源点；产生率

中图分类号：U491.1+4

文献标识码：A

Passenger Density Forecasting for the Beijing South-Central BRT Axis Based on Trip Generators

YUAN Yongjing¹, and WANG Yuanqing²
(1. China Sustainable Transportation Center, Beijing 100004, China; 2. Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, China)

Abstract: This paper analyzes characteristics of urban land-uses in association with the rapid economic development of our country from a perspective of land-uses, i.e., trip generators, by introducing the concepts of trip generators and construing the mechanism of how they are created. Then, the paper proposes an improved, and economic and applicable method of trip generation rates estimated according to land-use types, that is, a trip generation forecasting framework based on land-use types of trip generators, with its models of the framework verified and modified. The case study results from the Beijing South-Central BRT Axis show that the method is not only resource-saving but reliable as well.

Keywords: traffic engineering; trip generation; land use; trip generators; trip generation rates