文章编号：1672-5328（2006）04-0012-09

易汉文1 殷茵2 编译
(1.美国加州交通部, 加利福尼亚 92117；2.中国地质大学, 武汉 430074)

摘要：PECAS是用于城市用地分析和交通预测的集成化模型系统。该系统假定在一个相对较短的时期(通常为一年)内，在整个分析区域生产和消费的各种产品，包括商品、服务、劳工等，能在其各自的交易市场上达到购销平衡。进而，该系统应用一系列NL模型, 在各分区之间分派/分布各类生产和消费活动，并据此预测交通需求。同时，该系统还根据各类用地开发几率，对不进入运输市场的用地供应进行单独模拟。这里阐述了PECAS模型系统的基本概念、系统结构、模型构造、计算流程和参数标定，以及与其他用地分析和交通预测模型之间的关系，并扼要介绍了PECAS的实际应用情况。

关键词：用地分析；交通预测；活动强度；效用；分派/分布模型

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

PECAS—An Integrated Land-Use and Transportation Modeling System

Edited and Translated by YI Hanwen，YIN Yin
(1. California Department of Transportation, California 92117, U.S.A; 2. China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China)

Abstract: PECAS is the recently designed and widely recognized modeling system that integrates land-use and transportation models. Under the assumption of a short-run (usually one year) market equilibrium in commodities, including goods, services, labor, etc., that are produced or consumed by activities within an entire region, and by using a series of NL models, the system allocates and distributes quantities of activities among land-use zones, with travel demands predicted according to these allocations. In addition, based on probabilities of various land-use developments, the system handles the un-transportable land and floor-space separately. The paper presents the basic concepts, system structure, model constructs, calculation flowchart, and calibration strategies that are used in PECAS, along with interrelations between PECAS and other land-use and transportation models. A brief discussion of practical applications of PECAS is included as well.

Key words: land-use analysis; transportation forecasting; quantity of activities; utility; allocation/distribution models