文章编号： 1672-5328（2025）05-0017-07

金昱1, 2，田田甜3
(1. 同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室，上海201804；2. 上海市规划和自然资源局，上海200003；3. 上 海市城市规划设计研究院，上海200040)

摘要： 空间和交通一体化是建设低碳高效城市交通系统的重要规划策略。从城市空间和综合交通两 方面分析交通碳排放影响因素，提出包含源头、过程、终端3 个阶段的城市客运交通碳排放流程； 综合考虑交通量、出行距离、交通结构、交通工具结构、碳排放因子5 项指标的影响，构建城市客 运交通碳排放计算模型。在此基础上，提出基于空间和交通一体化的上海市客运交通减碳策略，并 采用多情景模拟方法定量评估不同策略的减碳效果。结果显示，强化新城节点城市功能、提升用地 布局紧凑度和推进TOD开发建设等规划情景协同实施后，可较“上海2035”基准情景实现约16.9% 的碳排放削减。

关键词： 城市空间规划；交通规划；客运交通；减碳策略；多情景模拟；上海市

中图分类号： U491

文献标识码：A

Carbon Reduction Strategies for Passenger Transportation in Shanghai Based on Spatial and Transportation Integration

JIN Yu1, 2, TIAN Tiantian3
(1. The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; 2. Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources, Shanghai 200003, China; 3. Shanghai Urban Planning & Design Research Institute, Shanghai 200040, China)

Abstract： Spatial and transportation integration is a critical planning strategy for developing low-carbon and efficient urban transportation systems. This paper analyzes the factors influencing transportation-related carbon emissions from the perspectives of both urban spatial planning and integrated transportation systems. A three-stage carbon emission framework is proposed for urban passenger transportation, encompassing the source, process, and terminal stages. The paper presents a calculation model that incorporates five key indicators: traffic volume, travel distance, transportation structure, vehicle composition, and carbon emission factors. Based on this model, the paper proposes carbon reduction strategies for Shanghai's passenger transportation system with the spatial and transportation integration. A multi-scenario simulation approach is employed to quantitatively assess the carbon reduction effects of alternative strategies. The results show that the coordinated implementation of planning scenarios, such as strengthening the functional roles of new towns, enhancing land- use compactness, and advancing Transit- Oriented Development (TOD), can lead to approximately 16.9% reduction in carbon emissions compared with the Shanghai 2035 baseline scenario.

Keywords： urban spatial planning; transportation planning; passenger transportation; carbon reduction strategies; multi-scenario simulation; Shanghai