文章编号： 1672-5328（2026）02-0123-04

董昱菡1, 2
(1. 同济大学交通学院，上海201804；2.同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室，上海201804)

摘要： 选取来自国际学术期刊的论文，以概述形式对城市交通理论方法、实证分析等学术研究成果 进行总结性介绍，旨在增强城市交通业界和学界对国际学术动向和研究热点的关注，促进学术交 流。《时空视角下美国政策举措对人口流动、COVID-19 病例及死亡率影响的研究》整合了美国50 个州的面板数据，构建了包含动态政策持续时间指标与非线性趋势项的固定效应事件研究框架。通 过严格的计量经济学检验证实，居家令和关闭工作场所在实施初期通过物理阻断机制显著降低了人 口流动性及确诊病例增长率。研究发现，公共信息宣传虽然未能改变空间流动轨迹，却通过提升防 疫意识使确诊率大幅下降，从而证实了流动性与病毒传播之间存在解耦效应。此外，该研究通过基 于时间维度的动态分析，揭示了强制性政策效力随时间衰减的疫情疲劳现象，为后疫情时代城市韧 性治理与公共卫生政策制定提供了理论支撑。

关键词： COVID-19；事件研究法；面板数据回归；流动性；时空异质性

中图分类号： U491

文献标识码：A

Research Dynamics on the Impact of Policy Measures on Human Mobility, COVID- 19 Cases, and Mortality in the US: A Spatiotemporal Perspective

Dong Yuhan1, 2
(1. College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; 2. The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201804, China)

Abstract： Social distancing policies were the primary defense against the rapid spread of COVID-19 during the early stages of the pandemic, yet their net effects and underlying mechanisms across different spatiotemporal contexts remain debated. The paper "The Impact of Policy Measures on Human Mobility, COVID- 19 Cases, and Mortality in the US: A Spatiotemporal Perspective", integrates panel data from 50 US states and develops a fixed-effects event study framework that include dynamic policy duration indicators and non-linear trend terms. Through rigorous econometric tests, the paper confirms that "stay-at-home orders" and "workplace closures" significantly reduced population mobility and the growth rate of confirmed cases in the early stage of implementation through physical blocking mechanisms. The results show that although "public information campaigns" did not change the spatial trajectory of population mobility, they substantially reduced the rate of confirmed cases by improving public awareness of epidemic prevention, thereby confirming a decoupling effect between mobility and virus transmission. In addition, through dynamic analysis based on the time dimension, the paper reveals an epidemic fatigue effect in which the effectiveness of mandatory policies declines over time. The paper provided theoretical support for urban resilience governance and public health policy making in the post-pandemic era.

Keywords： COVID-19; event study; panel data regression; mobility; spatiotemporal heterogeneity