文章编号： 1672-5328（2026）03-0001-06

夏学杰，胡红
(北京节能环保中心，北京101160)

摘要： 通过构建多层感知机(MLP)神经网络模型，模拟分析国际与国内油价波动对居民出行总量、 出行结构及汽油消耗量的非线性影响，并识别油价传导的阈值效应与时滞特征。研究表明：1)国际 油价每上涨10 美元‧桶-1，北京市居民日均出行总量下降22 万~30 万人次‧d-1，私人汽车出行比例下降 0.8~1.2 个百分点，公共交通与非机动交通出行比例相应提升3.5~6.9 个百分点，居民月度汽油消耗 量减少0.3 万~0.4 万t‧月-1；2)油价对居民出行影响存在显著的双重阈值与非线性突变特征，国际原 油价格阈值为80 美元‧桶-1，国内92#汽油价格阈值为9.0 元‧L-1，突破阈值后居民出行总量和结构调 整呈加速趋势；3)在时滞效应方面，国际油价突破阈值后约10 个工作日完成国内终端成品油价格传 导，再经1~2 个月才会引发居民出行总量和结构同步突变。结合中、高风险情景模拟结果，从建立 交通保障联动响应机制，强化绿色出行服务供给，推广新能源汽车应用，完善交通、能源与经济协 同治理4 个方面提出政策建议。

关键词： 国际原油价格；国内汽油价格；居民出行结构；神经网络；阈值效应；时滞效应；北京市

中图分类号： U491

文献标识码：A

The Impact of Fluctuations in Fuel Prices on Urban Residents' Travel Patterns in Beijing

Xia Xuejie, Hu Hong
(Beijing Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Center, Beijing 101160, China)

Abstract： By constructing a Multi- Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network model, this paper simulates and analyzes the nonlinear effects of fluctuations in international and domestic oil prices on total residential travel volume, travel mode share, and gasoline consumption, and identifies the threshold effects and time lag characteristics of oil price transmission. The results indicate that: 1) For every $10 per barrel increase in international oil prices, the average daily total travel volume of Beijing residents decreases by 220,000 to 300,000 trips, the proportion of private car travel decreases by 0.8 to 1.2 percentage points, the proportions of public transportation and non-motorized travel increase by 3.5 to 6.9 percentage points, and monthly gasoline consumption by residents decreases by 3,000~4,000 tons; 2) The impact of oil prices on residents' travel exhibits significant dual-threshold and nonlinear abrupt change characteristics. The threshold for international crude oil prices is $80 per barrel, while the threshold for domestic 92-octane gasoline prices is 9.0 yuan per liter. Once these thresholds are exceeded, the adjustment in total travel volume and structure accelerates; 3) Regarding time lag effects, it takes approximately 10 working days for domestic retail refined oil prices to adjust after international oil prices exceed the threshold, and another 1~2 months before this adjustment triggers a simultaneous abrupt change in the total volume and structure of residential travel. Based on the simulation results of medium- and high- risk scenarios, policy recommendations are proposed in four areas: establishing a coordinated response mechanism for transportation security, strengthening the supply of green travel services, promoting the application of new energy vehicles, and improving the coordinated governance of transportation, energy, and the economy.

Keywords： international crude oil prices; domestic gasoline prices; residential travel mode share; neural networks; threshold effect; time lag effect; Beijing