文章编号：1672-5328（2007）05-0042-04

陈小鸿 冯均佳 杨超
（同济大学交通运输工程学院，上海 200092）

摘要：针对正态分布或对数正态分布往往不能有效地描述小间隔行程时间分布的问题，提出了基于浮动车数据的行程时间算法。通过基于浮动车数据的行程时间经验分布，得到了以15 min为间隔的不同出发时段行程时间的可靠度指标。以广深高速公路同乐—宝安机场段为例，对不同日、不同出发时段的行程时间可靠度特征进行了分析。该研究方法对于描述交通条件变化比较频繁的城市交通环境的行程时间可靠度有较强的适应性。

关键词：行程时间；可靠度；浮动车数据；行程时间预算指数

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

Research on Travel Time Reliability Characteristics Based on Floating Car Data

CHEN Xiaohong, FENG Junjia and YANG Chao
(School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092)

Abstract: Knowing that lognormal or normal distribution is not suitable for describing the distribution of short interval of travel times, the paper puts forward a method of calculating the travel time based on the floating car data. Through the study on travel time empirical distribution based on floating car data, the reliability indexes of different departure times with 15-minute interval were drawn. Then the travel time reliability characteristics of different dates and different departure times are analyzed based on the case of the Tongle-Bao'an road segment of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen freeway. The new method is more suitable for describing travel time reliabilities in urban area where traffic conditions vary frequently.

Keywords: travel time; reliability; floating car data; travel time budget index