文章编号：1672-5328（2009）01-0026-05

李  锋
（深圳市城市交通规划研究中心，广东 深圳 518040）

摘要：客流预测结果是轨道交通发展建设的重要依据。首先分析了深圳市近期轨道交通发展的特点，并总结其对轨道交通客流成长和预测方面的启示。针对轨道交通客流预测普遍存在的技术问题，提出利用“客流预测规划审核”和“预测结果综合决策”的办法改进客流预测。前者探讨了重要基础数据的核实、轨道交通出行特征分析、敏感性分析等内容。后者包括确定系统规模的综合决策以及确定车站设计规模和运营组织方案的综合决策。最后提出客流预测发展机制的一些建议。

关键词：交通规划；轨道交通；客流预测；规划审核；综合决策

中图分类号：U491.1⁺4

文献标识码：A

Improving Rail Transit Passenger Forecasting through Plan Auditing & Comprehensive Decision Making

Li Feng
(Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center, Shenzhen 518040, Guangdong, China)

Abstract：Passenger forecasting plays an important role in the construction and development of rail transit systems. This paper first analyzes characteristics of short-term development of rail transit in Shenzhen, and further summarizes their implications to future development and volumes forecasting for rail transit projects. While addressing technical issues generally seen in passenger volumes forecasting, the paper presents two approaches to improving rail transit passenger forecasting, i.e., passenger forecast and plan auditing, and comprehensive decision making based on forecasting results. The former taps into such issues as critical data verification, rail transit travel characteristics and sensitivity analyses; while the latter focuses on comprehensive decision making on rail transit system (including stations) scale, as well as operation scenarios. Finally, the paper offers suggestions on development mechanism for rail transit passenger forecasting.

Keywords：transportation planning; rail transit; passenger volumes forecasting; plan auditing; comprehensive decision making