文章编号：1672-5328（2011）02-0015-07

李　锋，陈永茂
（深圳市城市交通规划设计研究中心有限公司，广东 深圳 518034）

摘要：交通拥堵日益成为制约中国大城市发展的突出问题和民生问题，迫切需要把握拥堵原因并快速采取应对措施。首先，从交通工程技术指标、出行者可接受程度以及拥堵影响范围控制角度，对严重交通拥堵进行界定。围绕结构性、一般管理及个体机动交通需求增长与管理三方面，提出一种简单明了的严重交通拥堵评估分析方法。选择城市交通发展若干具有战略性或代表性意义的指标作为评估要素，确定各评估要素产生拥堵的高、中、低三个风险等级的阈值。在此基础上，提出严重交通拥堵的应对策略。最后，以深圳市为例进行严重交通拥堵评估并提出应对策略，验证了方法的有效性。

关键词：城市交通；交通拥堵；风险评估；应对策略；交通需求管理

中图分类号：U491

文献标识码：A

Risk Assessment & Countermeasures for Traffic Congestion in Large Metropolitan Areas

LI Feng, CHEN Yong-mao
(Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center Co. Ltd., Shenzhen Guangdong 518034, China)

Abstract：Because traffic congestion is becoming a bottleneck severely threatening the economic development in large cities in China, it requires immediate countermeasures than target the root of the problems. This paper first discusses the level of congestion in three aspects: technical indices of traffic engineering, travelers’ tolerance, and impact area of traffic congestion. A concise evaluation method is proposed to evaluate the severity of congestions according to the scope of traffic congestion, general traffic control strategies and traffic demand management. By selecting the representative urban transportation development indexes as the key evaluation elements, this paper establishes the threshold for low, medium and high traffic congestion levels. Based on the evaluation results, the congestion countermeasures are proposed. Finally, taking Shenzhen as an example, the paper validates the congestion assessment method as well as the corresponding congestion countermeasures.

Keywords：urban transportation; traffic congestion; risk assessment; countermeasures; travel demand management