文章编号： 1672-5328（2020）02-0030-07

张蕊1, 2，许伊婷1, 3，汤优4，刘阳5，郝嘉田1, 3
(1. 北京建筑大学土木与交通工程学院，北京100044；2. 北京建筑大学首都世界城市顺畅交通协同创新中心，北 京100044；3. 北京建筑大学北京市城市交通基础设施建设工程技术研究中心，北京100044；4. 北京京港地铁有 限公司，北京100050；5.北京市交通委员会，北京100073)

摘要： 随着全面二孩政策的实施，学龄儿童数量增加、家庭结构产生变化，导致城市居民出行行为 及家庭决策更为复杂。结合RP和SP 调查，对未来二孩家庭学龄儿童通学出行行为特征进行分析。 基于结构方程原理，构建以家庭为决策单位的学龄儿童通学出行行为模型，研究通学出行决策的形 成机理。结果表明：学龄儿童的年龄及交通安全认知、通学距离及道路交通安全状况、父母通勤属 性是影响接送决策的关键因素；通学距离、公共交通便利性、出行环境安全性以及接送决策是影响 儿童通学方式选择的关键因素。最后，结合调查和模型结果，从城市规划管理、交通系统发展等角 度提出政策建议，优化通学交通结构、减轻城市交通负荷。

关键词： 交通管理；出行行为；结构方程模型；通学出行；二孩政策；学龄儿童

中图分类号： U491.1+2

文献标识码：A

Children's School-Bound Traveling Behaviors and Strategies Under the Two-Child Policy

Zhang Rui1, 2, Xu Yiting1, 3, Tang You4, Liu Yang5, Hao Jiatian1, 3
(1. School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China; 2. Beijing Collaborative Innovation Center for Metropolitan Transportation, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China; 3. Beijing Urban Transportation Infrastructure Engineering and Architecture, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China; 4. Beijing MTR Corporation Limited, Beijing 100050, China; 5. Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport, Beijing 100073, China)

Abstract： The two-child policy will result in a growing number of school-age children and the change of family structures, which makes urban residents' travel behaviors and family decisions more complicated. This paper analyzes the characteristics of future children school-bound traveling behavior in two-child families based on RP and SP investigation. By adopting the structural modeling concept, the paper develops a school-bound traveling behavior model with families as decision-making units to study the commuting decisions making. The results show that parents' key decision making factors on picking-up and droppingoff of school-bound children are the age and safety awareness of the children, distance to school, road traffic safety conditions, and conveniences of public transit. Based on the investigation and modeling results, the paper proposes policies on urban planning, transportation system development, optimization of schoolbound traveling and reduction on urban traffic demand.

Keywords： transportation management; travel behaviors; structural equation modeling; school-bound traveling; two-child policy; school-age children