文章编号： 1672-5328（2025）03-0033-06

张杰华1, 2, 3，郑淑鉴1, 2, 3，熊文华1, 2, 3
(1. 广州市交通规划研究院有限公司，广东广州510030；2. 道路交通安全管控技术国家工程研究中心，北京 100000；3.广东省可持续交通工程技术研究中心，广东广州510030)

摘要： 针对中国城市电动自行车数量快速增长引发的交通秩序混乱和安全管理问题，开展系统性的 电动自行车总量调控指标计算方法研究。首先从城市交通管理的实际需求出发，探讨实施电动自行 车总量调控的必要性和影响要素。其次，构建包含人口规模、出行方式和道路承载力3 个维度的电 动自行车总量调控指标体系，确立总量调控指标计算方法。最后，通过典型城市案例分析，证实了 3 种计算方法具有显著的科学性与一致性，目标城市2035 年电动自行车总量调控指标区间为：全市 667~720 万辆，中心城区385~420 万辆。结果表明，实施该调控方案可使电动自行车无序增长规模 降低15%~23%，为电动自行车管理政策的科学制定提供量化依据和技术支撑。

关键词： 交通管理；电动自行车；总量调控；道路承载力

中图分类号： U491

文献标识码：A

Calculation Method for Regulatory Indicators of Urban E-Bike Population

ZHANG Jiehua1, 2, 3, ZHENG Shujian1, 2, 3, XIONGWenhua1, 2, 3
(1. Guangzhou Transport Planning Research lnstitute Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Guangdong 510030, China; 2. Research Institute for Road Safety of MPS, Beijing 100000, China; 3. Guangdong Sustainable Transportation Engineering Technology Research Center, Guangzhou Guangdong 510030, China)

Abstract： In response to the increasing traffic disorder and safety management concerns due to the rapid growth of electric bicycles (e-bikes) in Chinese cities, this paper presents a systematic study on calculation method for regulatory indicators of urban e-bike population. Beginning with an analysis of practical urban traffic management needs, the paper examines the necessity of e-bike population regulation and the factors influencing its implementation. A three- dimensional framework, including population size, travel mode, and road capacity, is established to develop the calculation method of regulatory indicators. Finally, the paper validates the scientific validity and internal consistency of three calculation methods through a case study of a representative city. Results show that the 2035 projected range of regulatory indicators for ebike population is between 6.67 and 7.2 million units citywide, with 3.85 to 4.2 million units in the central urban area. The findings suggest that applying this regulatory scheme could reduce the scale of unregulated e-bike growth by 15% to 23%, offering a quantitative basis and technical support for the scientific formulation of e-bike management policies.

Keywords： traffic management; e-bike; population regulation; road capacity