文章编号：1672-5328（2008）06-0005-04

全永燊
（北京交通发展研究中心，北京 100055）

摘要：目前，城市交通客流预测存在基础数据是否准确、预测模型是否有效以及能否正确理解和应用客流预测理论方法等问题。提出要建立适合各城市特点的规划模型，同时注重建模依据的可靠性以及模型的调校和维护。总结了“四阶段”法各阶段模型以及高峰小时模型在使用过程中需要注意的关键问题。强调要考虑模型各阶段的相互制约关系，进行必要的迭代运算。最后，对城市交通客流预测工作提出5点改进建议。

关键词：交通规划；交通模型；客流预测；模型调校

中图分类号：U491.1+4

文献标识码：A

Comments on Issues regarding Urban Travel Forecasting

Quan Yongshen
(Beijing Transportation Research Center, Beijing 100055)

Abstract: Currently, urban travel forecasting encounters several issues, as to whether or not the travel survey data are accurate, how reliable the forecasting models are, how to correctly understand and apply the theories and approaches of travel forecasting, among others. This paper argues that urban transportation planning models should be developed according to local characteristics, with emphasis laid on validity of modeling premises, as well as on calibration and maintenance of the model. The paper summarizes key issues of each step while utilizing the 4-step model and the peak-hour model. Stressing the interactions among the 4 steps, the paper points out that feedback iterations should be carried out for more reasonable results. Finally, the paper proposes 5 suggestions to improve urban travel forecasts.

Keywords：transportation planning; transportation model; travel forecasting; model adjustment