文章编号：1672-5328（2008）03-0016-07

孙福亮¹ 孙壮志¹ 贾洪飞² 刘新华¹ 姚广铮¹
（1.北京交通发展研究中心，北京 100055；2.吉林大学，长春 130022）

摘要：科学的奥运观众交通需求预测是奥运期间合理交通调度、提高交通运行效率的前提。介绍了奥运观众交通需求预测的重要意义，并对预测方法及内容进行了分析，为奥运期间比赛场馆专线公交车辆的配置和场馆周边临时公交场站的设置提供了参考。提出应重点把握早晚高峰时段专线公交车辆的调度、多场馆车辆协同调度和观众入退场交叠场馆的交通组织问题, 并据此从整体、分区域、分场馆三个层面分析了奥运观众交通需求，提出针对性建议, 如增大安检缓冲区面积等。

关键词：交通规划；交通模型；奥运会；交通需求预测

中图分类号：U491.1

文献标识码：A

Travel Demand Forecasting for Beijing Olympic Spectators

Sun Fuliang¹, Sun Zhuangzhi¹, Jia Hongfei², Liu Xinhua¹ and Yao Guangzheng¹
(1. Beijing Transportation Research Center, Beijing100055, China; 2. Jilin University, Changchun130022, China)

Abstract: Only the scientific travel demand forecasting for the Olympic spectators can result in reasonable dispatch and thus effective operations of transit systems. With respect to the significance of the Olympic spectators’ travel demand forecasting, this paper introduces the methodology and results of travel demand forecasting for the Beijing Olympic spectators, and provides suggestions to accommodate transit vehicles to special transit routes and to deploy temporary transit stops around the competition venues during the Olympic games. The paper emphasizes special attention should be exercised on issues such as vehicle dispatching for the special transit routes during the AM and PM peak periods, coordination of vehicle dispatching across multi-venues, and traffic organization for the overlapping of arrival and departure spectators. The paper further analyzes the forecasting results from the overall, regional, and individual venue levels, and offers some suggestions like enlarging the security buffer zones.

Keywords: transportation planning; transportation models; Olympic Games; travel demand forecasting